Premier League Title Race: Liverpool, Arsenal & Man City – Who Has the Edge in 2025/26?

The Premier League title race is once again shaping up to be a three-way battle between Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester City. Arsenal currently hold a narrow lead at the top, City are close behind, and defending champions Liverpool are trying to recover after a difficult start to their title defence.

Rather than just looking at the table, it’s worth breaking down the strengths and weaknesses of each team to understand who is truly best placed to lift the trophy at the end of the 2025/26 season.

Arsenal – Control, consistency… and the pressure of leading

Arsenal have done what every contender dreams of: they have turned themselves into a points machine. Under Mikel Arteta, the Gunners have become one of the most organised teams in Europe, combining a strong defensive structure with intelligent pressing and slick combination play in the final third.

Pros: settled manager, clear playing style, strong defensive numbers, and a squad that has been upgraded window after window.
Cons: the psychological pressure of leading the race, a demanding fixture list, and reliance on key players staying fit.

Recent seasons have shown that Arsenal can put long unbeaten runs together, especially after Christmas, but have also experienced costly dips in form when injuries hit or fatigue creeps in. With European commitments and domestic cups on top of the league schedule, squad depth will be tested again as the games pile up.

If Arsenal maintain their defensive solidity and avoid a repeat of previous spring stumbles, they might finally convert “title challengers” status into “title winners”. But as we’ve seen before, being chased by City is a different kind of pressure entirely.

Manchester City – Champions rebuilt, again

Writing off Manchester City is usually a mistake. After a difficult spell last season, Pep Guardiola has once again reshaped his squad and found fresh ways to win. City have been more direct at times, more vertical in transition, and less obsessed with sterile domination, which has made them dangerous in different ways. :contentReference[oaicite:1]{index=1}

Pros: title-winning experience, enormous depth, and a manager who is used to solving problems on the fly.
Cons: a demanding schedule across multiple competitions, and the occasional vulnerability against teams that press aggressively or attack quickly in wide areas.

With a forward like Erling Haaland (or whoever leads the line in 2025/26) City almost always have a decisive presence in the box. When their midfield clicks and the press is coordinated, they can overwhelm opponents and go on the kind of long winning streak that has broken title races in the past.

The concern for City is consistency. They have already shown they can drop points in games where they dominate the ball but fail to take chances or lose concentration defensively. If those slip-ups continue, Arsenal’s lead can grow. If City tighten up and go into “machine mode”, everyone else is in trouble.

Liverpool – Champions with something to prove

Liverpool arrive in this title race from a different angle: they are the reigning Premier League champions but have started this campaign well below their own standards. A stuttering opening run, too many defeats and defensive issues have left them playing catch-up in the early months of the season. :contentReference[oaicite:2]{index=2}

Pros: proven match-winners in attack, an aggressive style that can blow teams away, and a track record of strong second halves of seasons.
Cons: defensive instability, questions over physicality at the back, and the mental fatigue that often follows a title-winning year.

Analytical models have already cooled on Liverpool’s chances after a poor start, reflecting how rarely teams come from a long way back to win the league. At the same time, this is a club that has repeatedly found energy from adversity. If the back line is strengthened and the pressing structure returns to its best, Liverpool can quickly turn a rough patch into a long unbeaten run.

The key question is simple: can they sort out the defence fast enough to stay in contact with Arsenal and City before the run-in? If not, they may shift their focus to securing a top-four spot and deep cup runs instead.

What history tells us about title comebacks

Premier League history is not kind to teams that fall several points behind by autumn. Only a small number of sides have overturned a gap of eight or more points at this stage of the season and gone on to win the title. Most champions build their success on two pillars: long unbeaten spells and avoiding mini-crises of back-to-back defeats. :contentReference[oaicite:3]{index=3}

That is why Arsenal’s early advantage matters, even if it looks small on paper. Every point banked now increases the pressure on City and Liverpool to be close to perfect from this point onwards.

Who is really favourite to win it?

Right now, Arsenal have the numbers and the league position. Manchester City have the heritage and know-how. Liverpool have the highest ceiling if they can fix their problems quickly enough.

If you trust squad depth and experience – City remain the most reliable long-term pick.
If you value form and structure – Arsenal look like the team with the fewest weaknesses.
If you believe in momentum and chaos – Liverpool are the wild card that could turn the race upside down after Christmas.

From a Goal1k perspective, this title race feels less like a straight line and more like a roller-coaster. Expect swings, overreactions, and dramatic weekends where one result changes the narrative completely. The only safe prediction is that Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City will keep pushing each other to an elite level – and for neutral fans, that’s the best possible outcome.

Follow Goal1k for more tactical breakdowns, match recaps, and title-race analysis throughout the 2025/26 season.